Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.038643 1.212541 1.406231 1.637930 1.907577 2.211527 2.580247
2024-12-22 0.722617 0.942297 1.214744 1.577387 2.047573 2.636916 3.432495
2024-12-29 0.613808 0.865264 1.201608 1.684231 2.359314 3.270885 4.597286
2025-01-05 0.494940 0.743481 1.097053 1.636435 2.439005 3.590380 5.371101
2025-01-12 0.406653 0.645430 1.003720 1.580051 2.484675 3.852182 6.081669
2025-01-19 0.341071 0.568680 0.926898 1.531089 2.525845 4.101551 6.794334
2025-01-26 0.304671 0.531308 0.903825 1.559851 2.687922 4.552370 7.877975
2025-02-02 0.287671 0.522883 0.925297 1.662763 2.982725 5.251439 9.460986
2025-02-09 0.264544 0.499899 0.917966 1.713263 3.191189 5.826272 10.899627
2025-02-16 0.240722 0.471887 0.897328 1.735684 3.349804 6.328953 12.268107
2025-02-23 0.217307 0.441090 0.867035 1.734932 3.463021 6.758793 13.549801
2025-03-02 0.195182 0.409588 0.831008 1.717550 3.540284 7.126973 14.754013
2025-03-09 0.178072 0.386449 0.809505 1.728629 3.680446 7.644092 16.344696
2025-03-16 0.156037 0.350015 0.756600 1.668398 3.667235 7.854105 17.336250
2025-03-23 0.152008 0.351860 0.783631 1.781501 4.036058 8.899423 20.244789
2025-03-30 0.135033 0.322310 0.739060 1.730964 4.039075 9.162865 21.466408
2025-04-06 0.119542 0.293948 0.693327 1.671339 4.012972 9.357440 22.554896
2025-04-13 0.106497 0.269525 0.653350 1.619564 3.997732 9.573357 23.719479
2025-04-20 0.100061 0.260361 0.647975 1.649978 4.182654 10.275910 26.143163
2025-04-27 0.098656 0.263665 0.673062 1.758804 4.574300 11.518590 30.061159
2025-05-04 0.094173 0.258367 0.676138 1.812206 4.832978 12.467203 33.358519
2025-05-11 0.088539 0.249214 0.668225 1.835915 5.017735 13.252455 36.333675
2025-05-18 0.082278 0.237458 0.651983 1.835120 5.136983 13.882873 38.976690